O artigo discute as estratégias dos eleitores que transferiram seus votos para Lula no segundo turno das eleições presidenciais de 2006 a fim de testar a hipótese de que esses eleitores empregaram uma nova forma de voto estratégico no primeiro turno das eleições: o voto estratégico punitivo. Argumentamos que esse tipo de comportamento eleitoral foi decisivo para explicar as seguidas reviravoltas ocorridas nas eleições presidenciais de 2006. O artigo também explora os condicionantes para o voto estratégico em sistemas eleitorais de dois turnos.

This article discusses voters' electoral strategies who transferred their votes to Lula in the second round of the 2006 Brazilian presidential elections. The goal is to test the hypothesis that voters applied a new form of strategic voting in the first round of the elections: strategic punitive vote. We argue that this type of electoral behavior was decisive to explain vote choices in the 2006 presidential elections as well as the conditions for strategic voting in ballotage systems.

O presente artigo analisa o impacto de ser beneficiário do Programa Bolsa Família do governo federal na decisão de voto na eleição de 2006 e na avaliação atual do Presidente Lula da Silva e contribui para a crescente literatura que explora o impacto desse programa na distribuição de voto em Lula. Contudo, diferentemente de outros estudos, são analisados aqui dados ao nível individual, testando um modelo estatístico multivariado em uma amostra probabilística nacional usando o Barômetro das Américas de 2008. Os resultados indicam um forte impacto de ser beneficiário do programa no voto em Lula e em avaliações positivas de seu desempenho.

This article explores the impact of being a Family Grant Program beneficiary in vote choice for President in the 2006 elections and in Lula da Silva's government evaluations. Therefore, the article contributes to the growing literature on how social programs affect voting behaviour in Brazil. However, differently from all other studies, we use individual level data from the AmericasBarometer 2008 Brazilian round, and multivariate statistical analysis to test our hypotheses. Results indicate that being a recipient of the Family Grant Program positively affects vote for Lula and his administration's evaluations.

O artigo mostra o impacto dos escândalos de corrupção sobre o voto do eleitor brasileiro na eleição presidencial de 2006. A pergunta central é se aqueles que consideraram a corrupção como principal problema deixaram de votar em Lula. O artigo avalia se e como os componentes retrospectivo, ideológico e partidário influem no voto bem como o impacto de fenômenos circunstanciais sobre ele. Os dados mostram que as percepções sobre a corrupção têm um peso maior na escolha de candidatos de partidos políticos vizinhos no espectro ideológico brasileiro e peso menor na escolha de candidatos de coalizões partidárias muito distantes neste espectro. Assim, na escolha de voto entre Lula e Alckmin, fatores como percepções sobre a economia, avaliação do governo Lula e certo componente partidário foram mais importantes e serviram de escudos para proteger Lula das acusações de corrupção no cenário da reeleição.

The article shows the impact of corruption scandals on the Brazilian voter’s choice in the 2006 Presidential election and it analyses if those individuals who have considered corruption the main Brazilian problem also did not vote for Lula. The article evaluates if and how the retrospective, ideological and partisan elements have influence on voting, as well as the circumstantial phenomena. Data shows that perceptions about corruption have more impact on the choice for candidates of political parties ideologically neighbors and have less impact on the choice for candidates of ideologically distant political parties. Therefore, the voter’s perceptions about economy, the Lula’s government performance and some partisan aspect were more important for the choice for President and have protected the candidate from the corruption’s accusations.

This paper explores the differences and similarities between the electoral systems in Brazil and Colombia and how it affects Brazilian incumbent Federal Deputies' and Colombian Diputados' political career choices and electoral success. The main argument is that even though both electoral systems are, in general terms, quite distinct, they appear to produce very similar effects in career choices and reelection. The main cause of the effects found is that the institutional minutiae of the two electoral systems increase their similarities.

This article tests whether there were race, gender, and income-related biases in political participation and distribution of political information during the 2002 Brazilian elections. The importance of political information is not assumed, but verified empirically. The first step was thus to confirm which types of information more clearly affected voter turnout and choices. Having clarified the role of political information in the 2002 elections, the article proceeds to investigate whether there were biases in the distribution of information that affected political participation and choice. Data for this study were obtained from a single public opinion panel study conducted in two medium-sized Brazilian cities, and the findings indicate pervasive biases in the distribution of political information in Brazil.

Dans cet article, on cherche à savoir si la race, le sexe et le salaire ont été responsables de biais dans la participation et la distribution de l'information politique aux élections brésiliennes de 2002. Tout d'abord on examine l'impact que l'information politique, sous toutes ses formes, peut avoir sur le comportement de l'électeur, sur sa décision de voter et son choix du candidat. Après avoir cerné ce rôle de l'information politique, on cherche à examiner les éventuelles distorsions dans la distribution de l'information. Les données de cette étude proviennent d'une seule source, un grand panel de l'opinion publique dans deux villes brésiliennes de taille moyenne. Les résultats montrent qu'on retrouve de forts biais dans la distribution de l'information politique au Brésil, surtout en ce qui concerne le sexe.

This paper explores the differences and similarities between the electoral systems in Brazil and Colombia and how it affects Brazilian incumbent Federal Deputies’ and Colombian Diputados’ political career choices and electoral success. The main argument is that even though both electoral systems are, in general terms, quite distinct, they appear to produce very similar effects in career choices and reelection. The main cause of the effects found is that the institutional minutiae of the two electoral systems increase their similarities. Deputies Diputados success are terms distinct reelection

O artigo testa duas explicações teóricas distintas sobre o ativismo cívico na América Latina usando dados nos níveis individual e agregado. Variáveis que operacionalizam conceitos-chave da teoria do capital social são incluídas em um modelo multivariado que também incorpora indicadores empíricos da idéia de "estruturas de oportunidade política" de Tarrow. O primeiro conjunto de variáveis enfoca o papel de variáveis como confiança interpessoal e tolerância na propensão de participação em associações da sociedade civil. O segundo conjunto de variáveis centra-se nos incentivos criados por instituições formais do Estado para a ação coletiva na sociedade. Os dados da América Latina indicam que o arcabouço institucional de um país exerce papel mais decisivo na participação de cidadãos em associações da sociedade civil do que o capital social.

This article tests two different theoretical explanations for civic activism in Latin America, using data at the individual and aggregate levels. Variables that operationalize key concepts from the theory of social capital are included in a multi-variate model that also incorporates empirical indicators for Tarrow's notion of "structures of political opportunities". The first group of variables focuses on the role of such variables as interpersonal confidence and tolerance as they affect the propensity to participate in civil society associations. The second group of variables is centered on the incentives for collective social action created by formal State institutions. Data on Latin America indicate that the institutional framework of a country exercises more decisive influence on citizens' participation in civil society associations than does social capital.

L'article vérifie deux explications théoriques différentes sur l'activisme civique en Amérique Latine et il utilise des données concernant l'individuel et le collectif. Des variables travaillant les concepts-clés de la théorie du capital social sont introduites dans un modèle multivarié qui comprend des indicateurs empiriques de la pensée «structures de l'opportunité politique» de Tarrow. Le premier groupe de variables met en relief le rôle des variables comme confiance interpersonnelle et tolérance dans la tendance à la participation à des associations de la société. Le second groupe est centré sur les incentifs créés par des institutions officielles de l'État visant l'action collective au sein de la société. Les données de l'Amérique Latine indiquent que le modèle institutionnel d'un pays joue un rôle plus important sur la participation des citoyens dans des associations de la société que le capital social.

Apesar do debate sobre os vetores da relação entre confiança interpessoal e democracia, está claro que a confiança interpessoal é a variável central no estudo da cultura política e do capital social. Este artigo examina alguns dos pressupostos básicos das teorias da cultura política e do capital social sobre confiança interpessoal, utilizando dados de pesquisas na América Latina. Em primeiro lugar, analisa quais são os tipos de comportamento político mais fortemente afetados pela confiança interpessoal e em que países essa confiança se correlaciona com mais freqüência com outras medidas de comportamento político que se espera teoricamente que se correlacionem com ela. Em segundo lugar, avalia quais são as variáveis que estimulam a existência da confiança interpessoal naqueles países em que a confiança não exerce uma influência significativa em outras formas de comportamento político. Portanto, a questão que este artigo enfrenta é se a confiança inter-pessoal é importante como elemento definidor do comportamento político, e onde ela é, por que alguns indivíduos mostram níveis mais altos de confiança interpessoal do que outros.

Despite the debate about the vectors of the relation between interpersonal trust and democracy, it is clear that interpersonal trust is a central variable in the study of political culture and social capital. This article tests some of the basic assumptions of political culture and social capital debates about interpersonal trust using survey data from Latin America. First it analyzes what are the kinds of political behavior that are more strongly affected by interpersonal trust and in what countries does interpersonal trust correlate with more often with other measures of political behavior that it is theoretically expected to relate with. Second, the article evaluates what are the variables that stimulate the existence of interpersonal trust in those countries where trust does play a significant role in affecting other forms of political behavior. Hence, the puzzle that this article addresses is if interpersonal trust matters as a defining element of political behavior, and where it does, why do some individuals show higher levels of interpersonal trust than others do.

Interpersonal trust is a central concept in social capital theory and in the discussion of civic culture. Explanatory models of support for democracy, membership in associations, and civic involvement commonly include measures of interpersonal trust. Although central to the theoretical debate over civil society and democracy, this concept has been measured in very simplistic ways. The conflicting and contradictory results of recent studies may well stem from the lack of reliability in measurements of trust. This study, based on a unique data set that contains different measures of interpersonal trust and uses factor analysis, concludes that there are two dimensions of trust, one of which has been consistently ignored by previous studies.

La confiance interpersonnelle est un concept central autant dans la théorie du capital social que dans la discussion à propos de la culture civique. Il s’agit d’une variable-clé pour expliquer des attitudes favorables à un régime démocratique et à des pratiques d’association et d’interaction. Malgré sa position capitale dans le débat théorique sur la société civile et la démocratie, ce concept est habituellement mesuré de façon assez ingénue. Les résultats opposés et contradictoires de certaines études récentes sur l’impact de la confiance interpersonnelle dans l’appui à la démocratie peuvent être le fruit du peu de qualité des indicateurs employés. Dans cette étude, qui se sert d’une banque de données particulière disposant de différentes opérationalisations du concept de confiance mutuelle, et qui prend pour base l’analyse factorielle, on aboutit à la conclusion de l’existence d’un concept à double portée assez nette, dont l’une a été constamment ignorée dans les études précédentes.